The spread of foreign species was intensified from the 16th century onwards by the discovery of America and European colonization. Invasive species are a subgroup of neobiota, meaning foreign animal and plant species that have reached new habitats through human actions. They are considered invasive if they have negative impacts on other species or ecosystems.

Researchers calculate plant "invasion risk"

As invasive neophytes, for example, the "ragweed" originally from North America, feared by pollen allergy sufferers, or the robinia, often referred to as acacia here, have already gained a lot of ground and established themselves sustainably. The team led by Ali Omer and Franz Essl from the Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research at the University of Vienna has now calculated the future "invasion risk" of a total of 9,701 plant species based on data from around the world up to the year 2100 under various climate and land use scenarios.

Accordingly, the area where at least ten percent of the nearly 10,000 invasive species studied could potentially establish themselves remains roughly the same size. It currently covers just under 34 percent of the land area and would be only slightly larger at around 37 percent by the end of the century. However, the potential hotspot regions for plant invaders are noticeably shifting. With the overall warmer temperatures, it may become too hot and/or too dry for them in some currently subtropical areas - which are currently most affected by immigrant plants.

"Hotspots" migrate northward

However, the space is far from running out for the disruptive immigrants: Because particularly in currently temperate zones and further north, enticing options are opening up for many invasive neophytes, as the comprehensive model calculations show. Especially in Europe - particularly in Central Europe - new "hotspots" could emerge. Thus, in our regions, robinia, ragweed, and others could spread even more. Other examples of plants that are already establishing themselves and for which conditions are tending to improve are the "silk plant," already quite successful in the lowlands of Austria, or the "orange hawkweed," which was introduced as a garden plant and is now spreading more widely - a quite classic course concerning invasive plants.

But not only in densely populated, temperate zones will it become easier for many neophytes, also in previously rather untouched ecosystems, for example in the higher north, more unwelcome newcomers threaten. For some regions, this could mean a massive species change. Not least the example of ragweed, which not only increases the health burden for many allergy sufferers but also extends further into autumn, shows that new plants can also significantly affect the well-being of many people. To prevent such developments, "tailored and proactive management strategies" are needed, the researchers write in their work.

(APA/Red)

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