
Unlike the usual seasonal forecasts, the current predictions are based on complex climate models that take into account long-term ocean currents, atmospheric patterns, and ongoing climate warming. "What we are seeing here is not an ordinary hot summer," explains climate researcher Dr. Martin Weiss. "The data suggests an extraordinary weather constellation that we have not experienced in this form before."
The extreme forecasts do not come out of the blue. Alarming signs are already evident: Soil moisture in many regions of Germany is significantly below the long-term average. Experts speak of an "invisible drought" spreading beneath the surface. Groundwater levels are dropping, while the surface vegetation still appears relatively intact - a deceptive picture that could quickly change.
The forecasts paint a dramatic picture: As early as June, temperatures could climb to up to 40 degrees - values that have so far only been reached in Central Europe in the height of summer. Particularly concerning is the predicted duration of the heatwave. Instead of the usual 3-5 days, heat periods could last for weeks, with only short interruptions.
With sustained temperatures over 35 degrees, the risk of heat exhaustion and heat stroke increases dramatically. Particularly at risk are the elderly, young children, and people with pre-existing conditions. "A heatwave of this magnitude would push our healthcare system to its limits," warns physician Dr. Klaus Berger. "We must take preventive measures now."
Not only do people suffer from extreme heat. Our infrastructure is also not designed for such stresses. Road surfaces can soften, railway tracks can deform, and energy networks can collapse under extreme load. Water supply could become a critical issue in many regions if groundwater levels continue to drop while consumption rises.
The good news: There is still time to prepare. Experts recommend better insulating living spaces against heat, installing shading options, and setting up water-efficient systems for gardens. Municipalities should develop heat action plans and identify at-risk groups to be able to respond quickly in an emergency.
The question of whether these extreme forecasts will actually come true cannot be answered with absolute certainty. Climate models work with probabilities, not certainties. Nevertheless, experts agree: The trend towards extreme weather events is unmistakable, and the likelihood of a record summer is increasing. The coming months will show whether the alarming signs intensify or weaken.
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